新冠肺炎疫情过后,非洲经济将如何复苏? 分享到
How Will African Economies Recover After COVID-19? 2020-06-0722365

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For the past few months the correlating calamity has been recognized around the world.
在过去的几个月里,这场相关的灾难已经在世界范围内引起了广泛的关注。
What are your thoughts on what we are witnessing with this particular COVID crisis?
您对我们在这场特殊的COVID危机中所看到的情况有什么看法?
Theres two sides to this that everybody is well aware of.
这有两个方面,每个人都很清楚。
On one side its the health-related issues,
一方面是与健康有关的问题,
and then on the other side the twin economic related issues that were dealing with,
另一方面,我们正在处理的与经济有关的两个问题,
not just for things of today but things that were gonna have to be dealing with.
不只是今天的事情,还有我们要处理的事情。
In terms of recovery across the world and for the continent in particular,theres going to be a number of issues.
就世界各地,特别是非洲大陆的复苏而言,会有很多问题。
Very often there is a tendency towards international community,
通常有一种国际社会趋势,
when there is such crisis whether its in Africa or other parts of the world,
当发生这样的危机时,无论是在非洲还是世界其他地方,
but in this case we see that the entire world is affected,so what can be done?
但在这种情况下,我们看到整个世界都受到了影响,那么,我们能做些什么呢?
On the immediate side,we have to deal with the debt crisis,
从直接的角度来说,我们必须处理债务危机,
and I think theres a long-standing precedence for the moratorium that are just refinancing a lot of the debt packages;
而且我认为暂停债务计划有着长期的优先地位,它只是在为大量的债务计划提供再融资;
otherwise, were going to be heading towards a default across the continent.
否则,我们将走向整个大陆违约。
As we then look in the future how do we deal with this.
当我们展望未来时,我们该如何处理这个问题。
The old way of economic development…were essentially developing economies…
旧的经济发展方式……我们本质上是发展中经济体…
think about leveraging globalization, a primer arbitrage, low-cost goods,
考虑利用全球化、初级套汇,低成本商品,
being manufactured on the continent to be sold internationally.
在非洲大陆制造并销往国际市场。
Thats not going to be the factor.
这不是原因。
I think youre gonna find a lot of developed countries saying,
我想你会发现很多发达国家说,
we need to produce the goods in those countries.
我们需要在这些国家生产货物。
And I think we look at these domestic markets.
我想我们看看这些国内市场。
Theres some expertise that perhaps were not recognizing,
有些专业信息我们可能没有意识到,
and Im pointing towards the international aid architecture:
我指的是国际援助架构:
the 150 billion dollars of A.I.G.overseas development assistance.
美国国际集团海外发展援助的1500亿美元。
Thats principally executed by international development organizations.
这主要是由国际发展组织执行的。
And so we took it upon ourselves at the Milken Institute to do a little bit of this research in partnership with UBS Optimus Foundation.
因此,我们在米尔肯研究所与瑞银擎天柱基金会合作开展了一些这项研究。
We looked at 500 global INGOs that are working with their donors,
我们观察了500个与捐助方合作的国际非政府组织,
to do a range of health capacity-building and delivery of commodities.
开展一系列卫生能力建设和商品交付工作。
And what are the some of the findings?
其中的一些发现是什么?
Well, what we identify was you should be looking at these entities from a couple of different pillars.
我们认为你应该从几个不同的角度来看待这些实体。
On one side,theres a relationship these organizations have with their donors.
一方面,这些组织与它们的捐赠者有一种关系。
Their donors sometimes actually prevent their capabilities from really handing off into a commercial sustainable enterprise.
捐赠者有时会阻止它们将自己的权限给商业可持续发展企业。
So I think theres a change that needs to happen from the donor to the recipient organization.
所以我认为从捐赠者到接受者组织需要发生改变。
Thats one thing that we I think identify.
我认为这是我们所认同的一件事。
The second thing we identified was, well,how much capital and what type of capital are they using.
我们发现的第二件事是,它们用了多少资本和什么类型的资本。
Is this a place or impact investors to partner with INGOs to build social enterprises?
这是投资者与国际非政府组织合作建立社会企业的场所或影响吗?
Now the issue is we need to make sure that we advance growth potential over and above the risk potential,
现在的问题是,我们需要确保我们在风险潜力之上提升增长潜力,
because of how slow the economies have gone.
因为经济发展缓慢。
And so looking at Basel regulations that allow capital to flow in to spur these type of activities.
因此,看看巴塞尔条例,这些法规允许资本流入,以刺激这类活动。
Thats in the control of not just the Basel Committee in Switzerland,
这不仅在瑞士巴塞尔委员会的控制之下,
but also in the countries central banks to make sure that recovery happens appropriately.
同时,各国央行也要确保经济复苏的顺利进行。
So there are some projections,
这里有一些预警,
that Africas GDPs could be reduced by three to eight percent this year because of the COVID-19 crisis.
今年,由于新冠肺炎危机,非洲的国内生产总值可能会减少3%至8%。
What do you make of it and if you were to kind of summarize it,
你对此有什么看法,如果你要总结一下,
what kind of strategies can be put in place,
采取什么样的策略,
to make sure that resilient economies are built to be able to withstand such crises in the future?
以确保有复原力的经济体能够在未来经受住这类危机?
To be honest with you,I think the estimates are probably a little too early.
说实话,我认为这个估计可能有点早。
We were not exactly sure how much its gonna really dip down.
我们不确定它会下降多少。
Theres…Ive seen the range is now…of 10 to 15 percent across the board.
有…我看到现在的范围是…百分之十到百分之十五。
With that being said the strategy to come back,I think its rooted in a couple of pillars.
说到复苏的策略,我认为它植根于几个支柱。
On one end we actually realized that the bedrock of being able to build back better if you will.
一方面,我们实际上意识到,如果你愿意的话,能够重建得更好的基石。
Its going to be an infrastructure strategy that makes sure that the foundation.
这将是一个基础设施战略,以确保基础。
There are a lot of infrastructure gaps throughout the continent,
整个非洲大陆都有很多基础设施缺口,
to make local regional and international markets work more effectively.
使当地、区域和国际市场更有效地运作。
The second thing probably need to realize is there is going to be effectively a certain number of industries,
第二件事可能需要意识到的是将会有一些有效的行业,
that countries need to make sure or that they have the ability to have in country supply chains,
这些国家需要确保其有能力在本国建立供应链,
but also on a regional basis as well.
同时也是在区域基础上。
And Im talking purely on the medical devices a pharmaceutical front,
我说的纯粹是医疗器械、医药方面,
and then the third one is recognizing that vulnerable populations are the ones that are always hit,
第三是认识到弱势群体总是会受到冲击,
and so how do we have an inclusive economy such that people could be a part of their own resilience going forward.
因此,我们如何才能拥有一个包容性的经济,使人们能够成为经济韧性的一部分。
Then that means thinking a little bit more holistically about the inequality,
这意味着要更全面地思考不平等问题,
that is pervasive throughout the continent in various different countries.
这在非洲大陆各个不同国家普遍存在。
That we bring individuals into the economy more women into the economy more youth into the economy,
我们将更多的个人带入经济,更多的女性进入经济,更多的年轻人进入经济,
and being able to actually have the bottom of the pyramid if you will,
如果你愿意的话,可以把金字塔的底部,
the strongest part of the of the economy.
经济中最强大的部分。
End of this. Thank you so much for being with us. Well see next time.
节目要结束了。非常感谢你的到来。我们下期见。
Always a pleasure, thank you Linord.
非常荣幸,谢谢你,Linord。

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